Credit: Kentucky Athletics

Tyler Herro Draft Profile

Breaking down the NBA potential of Tyler Herro

Freshman 6’5″ 195 Shooting Guard Kentucky 19 Yrs. Old
14 ppg 4.5 rpg 2.5 apg FG: 46.2% 3 PT: 35.5%

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Recruiting Profile

Wingspan: 6’4.5″

Vertical Leap: 33.5 Inches

NBA Comparison: Nik Stauskas

Strengths: Outside Shooting, Play Making, Shot Creation, Natural Scorer

Weaknesses: Athleticism, Strength, Length

Arriving at Kentucky known primarily as a shoote, most fans and analysts expected that he would be in Lexington for multiple seasons. With his announcement that he plans to stay in the draft after receiving positive feedback, that has proven to be a false belief. What recruiting services got wrong with Herro was the fact that he was not just a shooter, but a player that had a variety of offensive skills that allow him to put up points. It took a little while for the freshman to get going with some down games early in the season, however once he got his footing his game really started to show. He shot the three pointer at 35.5%, and went 46.2% from the field overall to go with an impressive 93.5% on free throw attempts. His numbers suggest that he is an high level shooter that should he be able to get his shot off against the increased talent level, he will have no problem knocking down shots. Mostly coming off of screens to get open or pulling up off of the dribble, he did show an ability to drive to the basket. This will not be a large part of his game as a pro, but it is worth noting he can do more than simply catch and shoot. Setting up teammates and rebounding were two things that he showed flashes of being able to do, and could be added bonuses if he is able to give you more than scoring. 

Not being a great athlete will cause him problems on both sides of the floor, and there will definitely be an adjustment, especially with creating his own shot. With that said, he is not a low level athlete by any means, however the level of athleticism in the NBA is much higher than an college.  There was some considerable improvement as a perimeter defender in his freshman year, showcased by his game against Fletcher Magee, however he will need to continue to grow to become an average NBA defender. In the same way, his lack of length could cause issues with guarding quicker players and getting his shot off. These were things he has been able to overcome in college, so NBA teams are betting that he will figure it out. Herro will need to add some strength to help him defend and get to the basket, but with his primary role being in a perimeter scoring, this will not be a concern for his potential. His production would have no doubt been larger if he were on a team with less talent, and when you look at his per 40 minutes, his numbers are very solid for a freshman in a major conference. 

Here is a big shot he hit against Houston in the sweet sixteen:

This clip gives you an idea of quickly he can knock down a three:

After not being seen as a potential 2019 draft pick coming into the year, Herro is now viewed as a first round selection with his most likely landing spot being in the back half of the round. There is always the possibility that he slips to the second round, but from the feedback he has received, that does not seem likely. His ceiling as a professional is a starter level guard that is one of the top shooters in the league, receiving significant minutes. The worst case scenario for Herro would be that he is unable to shoot the ball efficiently at the next level, and is a defensive liability, leading to him being on a roster in a limited role. 

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