Credit: Texas Athletics

Kerwin Roach II Draft Profile

Breaking down the NBA potential of Kerwin Roach II

Senior 6’4″ 180 Point Guard Texas 22 Yrs. Old
15.1 ppg 4.4 rpg 3.3 apg FG: 44.1% 3 PT: 35.5%

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Recruiting Profile

NBA Comparison: Terry Rozier

Strengths: Speed/Quickness, Athleticism, Shot Creation

Weaknesses: Efficiency, Passing, Suspensions

There were plenty of up and downs in Roach’s four seasons at Texas, with many highlight plays but also injuries and suspensions. Roach II played part of his junior season with a broken hand, and tore his meniscus in August of 2018. As for the suspensions, Roach II was suspended for the teams opening game in both his sophomore and senior seasons, and then indefinitely later in the year before returning to the team as the Big 12 tournament got underway. While the off the court activity will no doubt be a concern for teams looking into drafting Roach II, there are many positives that he brings to the table as well. His speed and quickness allow him to get the basket at will, especially in transition where he is deadly. Once he does get by a defender, he has elite athleticism that he utilizes to throw down a big dunk or hang in the air for a layup. In the half court he is able to create his own shot or come off of a screen, however he prefers the ball in his hands to get an open shot. These attributes are ready made for the professional game when you consider how there is more spacing and lanes for Roach II to do damage. He rebounds the ball at an above average rate for a 6’4″ guard, again using his athleticism and vertical abilities, and those some skills should allow him with some coaching to become a solid defender on the wing. 

Despite the highlight plays and athleticism he has shown, analytically there is a lot more to be desired when were dealing with a player looking to join the most competitive league that basketball has to offer. Roach II did not average double digit points per game game (9.9 as a sophomore) until his junior season where he averaged just over 12. His numbers did improve to 15.1 as a senior, but he has struggled to shoot the ball with efficiency and there is some questionable shot selection. With that said, he did improve as a shooter as his career progressed, but he never shot the ball over 45% from the field or 36% on three point attempts. Those numbers are not terrible, but the fact that he did not put up better numbers, especially as a junior and a senior given his skill set is a concern. Providing hope that he can compete at the next level are games like his 26 point performance against Nevada in the NCAA tournament as a junior where he made 6 three pointers, and dominating against North Carolina with 32 points as a senior. There is also the issue of him not being a true point guard and more of a natural scorer of the basketball versus being a distributor. He averaged 3.7 assists as a sophomore, 3.6 as a junior, and 3.3 as a senior. If Roach II is going to stick in the league for years to come he will need to work on his point guard skills and find a way to set up his teammates at a higher rate. 

These two plays give you an idea of his elite athleticism:

Roach II is currently projected as a second round pick by many, and undrafted by others. He could go in the late second round, but the fact that he has had off the court troubles and put up pedestrian numbers for a senior in college basketball with his skill level, might cause teams to pass. His ceiling is quite high for a player projected to go late in the draft or passed up entirely, providing he improves his distribution skills and shoots it more effectively, as a starter level point guard putting up solid scoring numbers. The worst case for Roach II as a professional is that he fails to be an effective lead guard at the NBA level and either comes off the bench to provide a scoring punch, or ends up in the G League/overseas.

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