Credit: UCF Athletics

Aubrey Dawkins Draft Profile

Breaking down the NBA potential of Aubrey Dawkins

Junior 6’6″ 205 Shooting Guard UCF 23 Yrs. Old
15.6 ppg 5 rpg 1.4 apg FG: 46.3% 3 PT: 40.3%

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Recruiting Profile

NBA Comparison: Alec Burks/Tim Hardaway Jr.

Strengths: Outside shooting, Shot creation, Length, Athleticism

Weaknesses: Only one year as starter, Lack of production before junior season

Starting his career at Michigan, Dawkins never received major minutes averaging 7 points per game as a freshman, and 6.5 as a sophomore. When Johnny Dawkins, his father, was hired as the coach of Central Florida he transferred to Orlando to play for the Knights. After sitting out a season due to transfer rules, Dawkins put up solid numbers in his junior year averaging 15.6 points in 33 minutes per game. Analytically, despite the lack of playing time at Michigan, his numbers were strong which is why many projected to have a big year at UCF this past season. He can create his own shot, come off of a screen, or pull up in transition which are all that he should be able to do at the pro level. His efficiency was impressive, shooting 40.3% on 5.5 three pointers per game continuing his good shooting numbers in the limited usage at Michigan. It is a good sign that as his usage went up when he joined Central Florida, his efficiency stayed fairly level, although there is a decline in competition going from the Big Ten conference to the AAC. His size at 6’6″ and length are solid, to go with a high level of athleticism which allows him to not only drive by defenders but also finish at the rim. Dawkins skill set was on display in the second round of the NCAA tournament against Duke where he made 5 three pointers and scored 32 points.

He should be able to defend at the pro level given his length and athleticism, however it is something that he will need to work on. There is also the worry that his ability to score was not against the best competition that college basketball has to offer, but he helped put that to bed with his performance against Duke. Dawkins started all 33 games as a junior, but his previous two seasons as Michigan he started 22 games. The small sample size of him receiving major minutes and usage makes it more difficult to project his game should he get significant minutes at the next level. The skills and measurements are all there, and if he can play well in the pre draft process and the summer league he should not have an issue finding a roster spot. 

These two clips show off his athleticism:

Dawkins reportedly has every intention of staying in the draft this year, and he would most likely go in the second round. Once he completes the pre-draft process, it is possible that with his potential he could go in the late first round. His ceiling as a professional is a starter level wing that can put up above average numbers offensively as well as playing solid defense on the perimeter. The worst case scenario for Dawkins would be that he is unable to score efficiently in the NBA and is unable to stick, leading him overseas or in the G League.

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